The B'chol Darchecha Email Digest: V. 1
A selection of some of the email generated by the last few weeks of posts
As I wrote in my introduction to B'chol Darchecha, I plan to publish periodic digests containing some of the email communications that the publication inspires. Well, it seems I've let those emails pile up for a bit too long, so this first edition of the digest will be longer than I'd expected.
We'll begin with the post that attracted by far the most attention: Making Sense of the Sheitel Industry. My thoughts in response follow each comment.
As far as the Indian hair controversy goes, I remember that when it happened back in 2004, I was working ... for an IT automotive company, and there were many Indians employed there. I asked one of the women on my team if such a custom exists to cut hair in the temple, and she responded as a דבר פשוט, "sure they do"
That was very scary to hear.
I've read that nearly all human hair these days is actually just Indian hair with different labels - even most of the Chinese and South American stuff. Although I definitely can't confirm that. There's so much more we could learn about this industry on so many levels. I hope this article gets around and some (former) industry insiders get in touch.
The first variable we need to look at is demand over the 25 years. I say it's possible that demand grew exponentially because the communities that buy sheitels tend to grow exponentially due to insane birth rates. If those communities average 6 kids each household, then that means 3 girls. When those 3 reach adulthood, they buy sheitels.
So, in year 1 of our 25-yr study, we have 1 customer, the mom. Depending on how old the kids are when the study starts, 25 years later, we might very well have 3 daughters buying them for a total demand of 4 customers. Hence, demand increased 400%.
When demand goes up like that, prices naturally follow. Got nothing to do with inflation. Economics 101. People are willing to pay more because the product is in greater demand.
But as an industry grows, economies of scale suggest that prices should come down, not grow. Billions more people own computers and smartphones now than thirty years ago, but they're nearly universally cheaper - by a large margin. Unless, of course, there is true scarcity. But to my memory, besides the brief temple-hair crisis of 2014, there has never been a shortage of sheitels in any market. Why, by the way, was that 2014 crisis so brief? Why didn't the sudden removal of India as the dominant supply source change the market permanently? I have no idea. But I would really love to find out.
How do we make them more affordable? Not by setting price limits, but by increasing supply. Create competition. Get 4x more sellers to service the 4x more buyers. Increase manufacturers and suppliers to the sellers by fourfold, too. Competition drives down prices as it increases supply. When supply catches up with demand, then prices return to their starting point, and then and only then, when supply catches up with demand, can we compare resulting prices against an inflation curve. Until then, sorry, but I'm afraid inflation is a straw man.
The Chinese manufacturers have caught on to how much their products are being sold for here so if you buy direct from them the prices have almost doubled in the last 3 or so years.
There is a finite supply. Short of kidnapping women and cutting off their hair (which may also be happening...) there's only so many people who want to sell their hair, especially for low enough prices for the middlemen and sheitel machers to make a killing. I was once getting a wig done when [the sheitel macher] got a call from a [retailer] complaining that another local seller was discounting the wigs steeply and trying to sell more volume with less profit, so the owner phoned up the offending seller and said that if she didn't sell at a certain markup she would stop selling to her.
And the [general] hair extension industry is definitely using the same sources as Jewish wigs. Have you seen this documentary?
The Mystery of Jewish Economics also sparked some lively discussion.
From purely anecdotal evidence, I think that the statistics on frum salaries (which I presume reflect the numbers on people's tax returns) are probably not accurate. I am pretty sure that many people earn a lot of cash income which is not reported to the government - some with heterim from their Rav, many who never asked, and many who have no idea it is even a Sha'ala. Also I hear from many people in my stage of life (meaning lots of tuition, kids going to yeshiva/seminary our of town, camp fees, simchos, buying houses, and even starting to make chasunahs - often all of the above in one year!) that relatives such as grandparents, parents, siblings etc. who are wealthy help them out significantly with these large expenses even if they don't give them money for day to day spending. If cash income and family support were included in each frum family's income, I suspect the average income would be much higher! And even with these 2 sources of unreported income, and the gov't benefits, these people still feel that they struggle with day to day expenses.
You're right, of course, that the income data I used missed money that's not reported (both legally and otherwise). It's the best I have. However, since my primary goal was to try to compare multiple population cohorts rather than rely on the numbers on their own, I think there's value. Let's say, for argument's sake, that we should add 50% to reported incomes. It seems likely that the non-reporting would probably apply more heavily to those reporting lower incomes...which would further exaggerate the very narrow standard deviation that bothered me in the article.
The funny part is that despite the fact that the cost of frum living keeps going up, the standard of living is not only not going down, but rising, and even many of the struggling people don't seem to want the standards to go down - every thing is just basics in their eyes. I guess this means that there are still enough people with access to the funds to keep it up.
I guess my primary hope is that by discussing the financial situation even using the limited data we have available, we might turn the conversation even a little bit towards sustainability issues - of the kind that you also note. And I definitely expect to have more to say about defining (and sticking to) a reasonable standard of living.
It was observed regarding the "maximal, preserve life at any cost" position discussed in "Is It Possible To Overdo Medical Care?" that:
[It] would be unthinkable become the norm. In a 2009 article in Canadian Medical Association Journal, Tom Koch discussed the Polio epidemic in the 1950s. He noted how everyone scrambled to save every life. Gymnasiums were turned into wards and cots were lined up from wall to wall. Steel lung machines were made and people were kept alive in these big negative pressure boxes. It was an imperative to save as many lives as possible. Nobody considered the costs or the quality of life of the people that were saved. He laments that in todays society the polio victims would be counseled against seeking treatment and most would die.
That is an excellent observation and adds a significant level to the conversation. The Koch article, by the way, is available here. It's both short and definitely worth reading.
Here's another email on the same article:
I guess that one has a choice between a good surgeon in your city , which will cost X amount or be covered by local insurance, or going to the States and having the best surgeon in world for $xxxxxxxxxxx and raise the money from Tzedaka. What should he do? As you put it there is a wide range of doctors and types of surgeries that have to go in the the equation. I would venture the rule of thumb is these shalois would be put to one's posek who has reasonable knowledge of all sides of story (medical background, financial status). B"h EHCO and other medical organizations have good objective advice in these areas.
I once asked the [a godol] a shaloh in these matters. The teshuva was, when it comes to health, you always go for the best doctor. Of course his reply might be different between a question involving heart surgery or something simpler, or a question of spending $10K or having to go abroad and paying $500k. But the general approach is health is paramount.
I would say that you've hit the real point of my article: why has bitachon completely disappeared as a factor in making medical decisions? I can't think of any way to read Chazal and the rishonim that would encourage endless hishtadlus, yet endless hishtadlus is exactly what that rabbi suggested to you. Why have so many people (even very great people) simply given up on acquiring bitachon in any practical way?
Regarding the bitachon aspect of the equation, if I may refer to the Ramban on this weeks parsha that because Moshe Rabeinu did not daven to be cured for Aral Sepsayim, Hashem did not cure him. A person can daven for Refuah with the knowledge that Hashem is All powerful and can send a refuah shelama bkorov .
Regarding the Ramban and Moshe Rabbainu, I'm not sure that davening for something counts as hishtadlus in this context. Notice how the Ramban did NOT say that Moshe should have gone to Boston and made an appointment with the best-in-class highest-priced oral surgeon. Just that he should have davened.
By the way, I'm curious to know more about the methodologies used by frum medical referral and support organizations like ECHO Institute for Health: Where do they get their information? How do they set their priorities? How do they deal with the deluge of new data and constantly-changing medical, technological, and political landscape? Any thoughts?
Finally, considering how it was just a bit off-topic, I was a bit surprised how many people actually read my article on Understanding Digital Privacy Here's one response:
As far as digital privacy goes, my personal opinion is that unless a person is very high profile, and there's an FBI search warrant on him, there's no need to worry that the folks over at google will be reading his emails, or anything else like that.
I'm not sure I agree. While it is indeed unlikely that any Google employee will ever take the time to read your emails (which would probably be a firing offence), it's beyond question that their algorithms are already aware of the hundreds of data points that accurately describe your behaviour, health, financial position, and political beliefs.
Have you ever completed an Amazon purchase, sent a personal email, and posted an "anonymous" slightly controversial comment on a website from the same IP address (i.e., from home or using a single smart phone)? Of course you have. Well, consider how Google, Facebook, Twitter, and anyone they sell your data to now own all those data points. And, as has been clearly demonstrated, they can link them together and (perhaps) illegally associate them with your actual, real-world identity.
Now, add to that the kind of social credit system already being used by the Chinese government, and you could one day see your passport application refused because you're guilty of spreading "misinformation" and shopping at a company with politically unpopular beliefs. And all that's besides the real threat of criminal organizations getting hold of that data.
I trust google unequivocally for anything. I store [a lot of my important data] on a google spreadsheet, because i know there have never been - and likely never will be - any breach in google's security. Unlike what happened to yahoo, target, and many others. they employ the world's best server and security engineers, and have no interest in my personal accounts.
I understand where you’re coming from. Google might well have no interest in the contents of your spreadsheets. But criminals do. All it would take would be for your Google account to be hijacked (which is something that happens to hundreds or even thousands of people each day) and everything is suddenly public domain. And what if Google locks you out of your account? That also happens.
Also, remember that data in Google Drive is only encrypted at rest. All bets are off if it's ever shared or moved.
I always strongly recommend using a password vault with strong encryption for sensitive data.