Here is a response I received from someone affiliated with project Nasi. He sent me a graph but I wasn't able to post it the way he sent, I assume you'll get the idea though.
"His data is messed up.
1) Look at his year-over-year growth rate, which goes negative for a few years
2) He shows that there are 20% more boys than girls born every year. Ludicrous.
If you have 20% more boys than girls each year you need a 4-year or 5-year age-gap to even things out. These are numbers that cannot be trusted.
Here is his data in the first three columns and the simple extrapolation using these numbers.
Grade girls boys more boys than girls % more boys than girls YoY growth girls YoY % growth girls YoY growth boys YoY % growth girls
Looks like excellent research! That website is a great discovery! Would you be willing to share your excel file? I understand if you don't want to do that.
Here is a response I received from someone affiliated with project Nasi. He sent me a graph but I wasn't able to post it the way he sent, I assume you'll get the idea though.
"His data is messed up.
1) Look at his year-over-year growth rate, which goes negative for a few years
2) He shows that there are 20% more boys than girls born every year. Ludicrous.
If you have 20% more boys than girls each year you need a 4-year or 5-year age-gap to even things out. These are numbers that cannot be trusted.
Here is his data in the first three columns and the simple extrapolation using these numbers.
Grade girls boys more boys than girls % more boys than girls YoY growth girls YoY % growth girls YoY growth boys YoY % growth girls
1 3205 3928 723 22.6% 2 0.06% 8 0.20%
2 3203 3920 717 22.4% 157 5.15% 117 3.08%
3 3046 3803 757 24.9% 52 1.74% 430 12.75%
4 2994 3373 379 12.7% 305 11.34% -66 -1.92%
5 2689 3439 750 27.9% -44 -1.61% 176 5.39%
6 2733 3263 530 19.4% -140 -4.87% -97 -2.89%
7 2873 3360 487 17.0% 109 3.94% 66 2.00%
8 2764 3294 530 19.2%
No point in examining this erroneous data."
How exactly are you calculating the "surplus" on your chart?
Seems like you're calculating a 3 year age gap, not 4 years. Correct?
Looks like excellent research! That website is a great discovery! Would you be willing to share your excel file? I understand if you don't want to do that.