Just looking at this post now because Ash linked to it in the current discussion on his substack.
While you raise important questions, I don't think a study of Toronto is sufficient to establish conclusions about the wider yeshiva world. This is because even if the yeshiva world is growing, it is disproportionately affecting specific communities (such as Lakewood) where many young couples choose to settle and there are even many large yeshivish communities which are declining due to various factors (such as LA), but not because the next generation is smaller, but because they choose to settle in other locales which are attracting young yeshivish families for whatever reason.
You're right: Toronto is certainly not enough to see the whole picture - and there isn't even enough data to properly see Toronto. In fact, no one I've yet seen has anywhere near enough data to draw strong conclusions.
The recent census of thousands of girls and boys who graduated eighth grade between 2005 and 2011 shows that the age gap is responsible for 50 percent of older girls; the other 50 percent is likely the factors you are mentioning.
How could they tell that 50 percent of the cohort was single *because of* the age gap? I'm genuinely curious to know what methodology could be applied to data to control for that variable.
I agree you can't know with absolute certainty, but you can know with very close to that based on the following census, which is a retrospective look into this question, and coupled with the predictive actuarial models from the OU.
Census Methodology
Adei Ad conducted the first true census of every eighth-grade graduate (2005–2011) from multiple boys’ and girls’ schools in Lakewood, Brooklyn, Chicago, and Baltimore. Instead of a survey, each student was tracked from eighth grade through today via their classmates, capturing marital status (single, married, divorced/remarried) and those who left the frum system (OTD) or dropped out before twelfth grade.
Sample Sizes
Adei Ad tracked roughly 2,580 girls and 1,770 boys across tens of eighth-grade classes, yielding a deep, representative snapshot of our community’s married vs. single population.
Inclusive of Divorcees & OTD
Because this was a true census, the 7–8 percent female-surplus figure includes divorced/remarried men (who often marry the remaining single women - due to the current imbalance, widening the gap) as well as divorced/remarried women and those who left the community. Excluding those groups reduces the surplus to about 6–7 percent.
Root Cause: Age Gap + Population Growth
Girls typically enter the dating market around age 19, while boys wait until about age 23. Each younger cohort is larger than the last, so more women compete for fewer same-age men—producing a persistent singles surplus.
Dating-Market Cohort Imbalance
At any given time, multiple cohorts of women (ages 19–22) are active, but only one cohort of men (age 23). This “pile-up” puts intense pressure on women and allows men to be disproportionately selective—an unhealthy dynamic experienced by nearly all single women, which causes numerous other issues as an outcome of this imbalance. So besides the affect the age gap has on 6-8 percent of girls ability to find a spouse it also negatively affects almost 100 percent of girls due to the dating imbalance. Narrowing the age gap will help this problem as well.
Expanding the Pool for All
Narrowing the age gap not only addresses the 6–8 percent marriage-rate shortfall but also immediately brings more men into the shidduch market each year (thanks to overall population growth) and more importantly more even cohorts of boys and girls in the market at any given time, creating a more balanced pool and easing other challenges beyond the age gap itself.
Has Adei Ad made their data available? That's always helpful.
But since you mentioned the OU study, it's significant that they found the mean age gap between yeshivishe husbands and wives to be just 2.5 years, and the median to be 2 years (and theirs isn't the only study to report that gap). Using those numbers rather than the popular, but unproven, 4 year gap will also make a big difference.
I've also seen no strong data demonstrating the precise and current population growth rates in various frum communities (rather than using numbers boosted by young couples moving to Lakewood). Without accurate birth rate information, nothing else will be all that reliable.
But in any case, I still haven't seen how the Adei Ad study controls for confounding variables.
שלשה דברים א"ר יהושע בן לוי משום אנשי ירושלים .... בתך בגרה שחרר עבדך ותן לה
It's an old problem and going back to polygamy is the only solution.
There are more women then men staistically and men have a higher attrition rate due to criminality, delinquency, dangerous occupations and wars. More boys go off the derech then girls.
My sample is too small to draw *many* conclusions, but it's not too small to draw *some* conclusions. But I do have some better data coming. I've applied to the Province of Ontario for grade-by-grade numbers that cover more years. If I get that, I should be able to control for more variables and see deeper.
" It's an old problem, and going back to polygamy is the only solution.
Polygamy won't solve anything. What polygamy causes is that a few old, rich men get young women, and then you have a lot of single, poor males. Additionally, there are not that many rich men who can afford more than one wife ( think of all the additional tuition )
"There are more women then men staistically
It is the other way around; there are statistically more men than women.
However, I think you nailed that the imbalance of women to men is not simply due to the "age gap"
Age gap theory assumes ALL available frum women marry ALL available men, regardless of any issues: health, hashkafik, OTD, wars, etc, etc.
Just looking at this post now because Ash linked to it in the current discussion on his substack.
While you raise important questions, I don't think a study of Toronto is sufficient to establish conclusions about the wider yeshiva world. This is because even if the yeshiva world is growing, it is disproportionately affecting specific communities (such as Lakewood) where many young couples choose to settle and there are even many large yeshivish communities which are declining due to various factors (such as LA), but not because the next generation is smaller, but because they choose to settle in other locales which are attracting young yeshivish families for whatever reason.
You're right: Toronto is certainly not enough to see the whole picture - and there isn't even enough data to properly see Toronto. In fact, no one I've yet seen has anywhere near enough data to draw strong conclusions.
However, as I wrote in a different post (https://darchecha.substack.com/p/the-largest-shidduch-crisis-ever) I think birth rates and age gaps are only a small part of the problem. Cultural context is at at least as important.
The recent census of thousands of girls and boys who graduated eighth grade between 2005 and 2011 shows that the age gap is responsible for 50 percent of older girls; the other 50 percent is likely the factors you are mentioning.
interesting point is a study in India they also had a age gap problem, https://economics.brown.edu/sites/default/files/papers/2011-12_paper.pdf#:~:text=Abstract,payoffs%20to%20study%20if%20this
How could they tell that 50 percent of the cohort was single *because of* the age gap? I'm genuinely curious to know what methodology could be applied to data to control for that variable.
I agree you can't know with absolute certainty, but you can know with very close to that based on the following census, which is a retrospective look into this question, and coupled with the predictive actuarial models from the OU.
Census Methodology
Adei Ad conducted the first true census of every eighth-grade graduate (2005–2011) from multiple boys’ and girls’ schools in Lakewood, Brooklyn, Chicago, and Baltimore. Instead of a survey, each student was tracked from eighth grade through today via their classmates, capturing marital status (single, married, divorced/remarried) and those who left the frum system (OTD) or dropped out before twelfth grade.
Sample Sizes
Adei Ad tracked roughly 2,580 girls and 1,770 boys across tens of eighth-grade classes, yielding a deep, representative snapshot of our community’s married vs. single population.
Inclusive of Divorcees & OTD
Because this was a true census, the 7–8 percent female-surplus figure includes divorced/remarried men (who often marry the remaining single women - due to the current imbalance, widening the gap) as well as divorced/remarried women and those who left the community. Excluding those groups reduces the surplus to about 6–7 percent.
Root Cause: Age Gap + Population Growth
Girls typically enter the dating market around age 19, while boys wait until about age 23. Each younger cohort is larger than the last, so more women compete for fewer same-age men—producing a persistent singles surplus.
Dating-Market Cohort Imbalance
At any given time, multiple cohorts of women (ages 19–22) are active, but only one cohort of men (age 23). This “pile-up” puts intense pressure on women and allows men to be disproportionately selective—an unhealthy dynamic experienced by nearly all single women, which causes numerous other issues as an outcome of this imbalance. So besides the affect the age gap has on 6-8 percent of girls ability to find a spouse it also negatively affects almost 100 percent of girls due to the dating imbalance. Narrowing the age gap will help this problem as well.
Expanding the Pool for All
Narrowing the age gap not only addresses the 6–8 percent marriage-rate shortfall but also immediately brings more men into the shidduch market each year (thanks to overall population growth) and more importantly more even cohorts of boys and girls in the market at any given time, creating a more balanced pool and easing other challenges beyond the age gap itself.
The OU study is here https://yeshivaworld.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/TSI-CCR-LZavgan-1.pdf
Has Adei Ad made their data available? That's always helpful.
But since you mentioned the OU study, it's significant that they found the mean age gap between yeshivishe husbands and wives to be just 2.5 years, and the median to be 2 years (and theirs isn't the only study to report that gap). Using those numbers rather than the popular, but unproven, 4 year gap will also make a big difference.
I've also seen no strong data demonstrating the precise and current population growth rates in various frum communities (rather than using numbers boosted by young couples moving to Lakewood). Without accurate birth rate information, nothing else will be all that reliable.
But in any case, I still haven't seen how the Adei Ad study controls for confounding variables.
That is why the Adei Ad census is so important, you don't need to guess the population growth.
They are in midst of preparing the data to share with the public.
שלשה דברים א"ר יהושע בן לוי משום אנשי ירושלים .... בתך בגרה שחרר עבדך ותן לה
It's an old problem and going back to polygamy is the only solution.
There are more women then men staistically and men have a higher attrition rate due to criminality, delinquency, dangerous occupations and wars. More boys go off the derech then girls.
Your sample is too small to draw any conclusion.
My sample is too small to draw *many* conclusions, but it's not too small to draw *some* conclusions. But I do have some better data coming. I've applied to the Province of Ontario for grade-by-grade numbers that cover more years. If I get that, I should be able to control for more variables and see deeper.
" It's an old problem, and going back to polygamy is the only solution.
Polygamy won't solve anything. What polygamy causes is that a few old, rich men get young women, and then you have a lot of single, poor males. Additionally, there are not that many rich men who can afford more than one wife ( think of all the additional tuition )
"There are more women then men staistically
It is the other way around; there are statistically more men than women.
However, I think you nailed that the imbalance of women to men is not simply due to the "age gap"
Age gap theory assumes ALL available frum women marry ALL available men, regardless of any issues: health, hashkafik, OTD, wars, etc, etc.
@danieltzvi -> This is why this study is wrong ( https://yeshivaworld.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/TSI-CCR-LZavgan-1.pdf); it assumes a perfect society, which the frum world is not.
Also, even according to this study, ~ 25% of people in Lakewood are NOT married:
From the Mainstream Yeshiva (Yeshivish) sample:
Total Yeshivish respondents: 3,813
Breakdown by gender:
Female respondents: 2,729 (72%)
Male respondents: 1,067 (28%)
(A small % did not disclose gender; we will exclude those.)
Marital Status (for 3,807 Yeshivish respondents for whom status is available):
Married: 2,762 → 73%
Never Married: 970 → 25%
Separated/Divorced/Widowed: ~75 → ~2%
+++++++
Assuming the survey is representative of the rest of the community, then:
This means:
~ 25% unmarried women(~765) and ~ 18%(~192) unmarried men;
A few questions:
Why % of women so high? The study is predicting ~ 2.5% and 6.2%
Why are so many men unmarried? The study is predicting 0.
The age gap theory is not the reason for a shidduch crisis; it is part of, and in my opinion, a very small one.
I think this is a great study to start a conversation, but the reality is much more complicated.
There is another study here: https://18forty.org/podcast/channah-cohen-the-crisis-of-experience/ that debunks the idea that the age gap is THE reason for the current crisis.