I think that your data exercises just demonstrate that despite how much we tell ourselves that our decisions are based on "science and data", it just ain't the case for 99% of the actions we take. Most of our actions are based on intuitions, experience, and reasoning. Data analysis is valuable for refining our reasoning, and in some cases overturning it, but let's not pretend that it's the be all and end all. In the end of the day, it's the most natural, intuitive thing in the world to make your voice heard, just like you are doing here on your blog, and nothing accomplishes that better than a huge rally.
I absolutely agree with you that the kind of data analytics I did here is - at best - only one small part of a responsible decision. And I agree that the rally itself probably did accomplish important things - even if that's just helping the participants better focus on what's important.
But that's not quite the same as saying that the positives definitively and in every similar case will outweigh the negatives (opportunity costs, security risks, expenses...). I think that's something that should be given serious consideration, too.
I think that your data exercises just demonstrate that despite how much we tell ourselves that our decisions are based on "science and data", it just ain't the case for 99% of the actions we take. Most of our actions are based on intuitions, experience, and reasoning. Data analysis is valuable for refining our reasoning, and in some cases overturning it, but let's not pretend that it's the be all and end all. In the end of the day, it's the most natural, intuitive thing in the world to make your voice heard, just like you are doing here on your blog, and nothing accomplishes that better than a huge rally.
I absolutely agree with you that the kind of data analytics I did here is - at best - only one small part of a responsible decision. And I agree that the rally itself probably did accomplish important things - even if that's just helping the participants better focus on what's important.
But that's not quite the same as saying that the positives definitively and in every similar case will outweigh the negatives (opportunity costs, security risks, expenses...). I think that's something that should be given serious consideration, too.