Connecting Jewish Life (and shidduchim) to Real-World Data

How you can help improve the quality of some important demographic data

Photo by Fernando Arcos

My recent post: “Resolving the Shidduch Age Gap Theory Debate” used data from the NCES Private School Universe Survey to better understand how population growth is impacting our communities. In fact, I believe that the survey results can teach us about much more than just the shidduch crisis. I hope to get to that at some point.

But first, we should confirm that the NCES data really does accurately represent our communities.

Which, sadly, means that there’s going to be just a bit more math. For those who really don’t enjoy numbers, I expect to be returning to the Torah stuff for the next post.

As it turns out, there are some problems with the dataset in its current form which introduce some weirdness.

For instance, taken as a whole - across Ocean, Rockland, Queens, and Kings (Brooklyn) Counties - the raw data showed around six thousand more boys than girls (an 11% difference). Normal demographics can’t explain that. There’s also the problem of high school aged boys “disappearing”: In Brooklyn, between 8th and 9th grades, they drop by 37%, in Ocean County by 45%, and in Queens by 39%. Where are they all going?

We can overcome some of those problems by drilling down deeper into the data to identify the sources of various anomalies. A noticeable “lack” of girls in Queens and Nassau county schools was one example. When I drop those counties from the total numbers, things do look at bit more normal.

We also need to be alert to gaps in the data. Perhaps some key schools (or categories of schools) are simply missing. Or, as was the case with the huge Lakewood Cheder School, some might be counted twice. When I brought that particular duplication to the attention of the Department of Education official responsible for the NCES data, she confirmed my report and advised me that one of the entries would be removed.

We should also measure what we’re seeing against other data sources. One important alternate source is annual birth records for Lakewood Township from the good folk at NJSHAD. Lakewood Township is a geographic designation that’s heavily Orthodox - nearly 90% of its children don’t attend public schools. We can learn a lot about the Jewish population from its general demographics.

Between 2010 and 2021, births grew at an average annual rate of 2.77%. To my knowledge, that’s pretty much unique in the entire Western world right now. So we’re primarily looking at Jews, here.

Over that 11 year period, the average male to female ratio was 106:100. That means 106 boys were born for every 100 girls, which is just slightly higher than what you’d expect from a large population (which is normally 105:100).

Now, when I compare the number of boys from any given year to the number of girls who are four years younger, I see a surplus of boys. So, for instance, there were 109 more boys born in 2013 than girls born in 2009. The average surplus between 2013 and 2021 was 108.

That seems to be the the most realistic and verifiable statistical baseline description of the frum population - not only for Lakewood, but for all heavily concentrated frum communities. I think it’s reasonable to assume that a conflict between that birth data and the NCES school enrollment numbers is more likely to suggest a problem with the school data than the birth rates.

Which is all a long-winded way of saying that, if we want to derive useful insights from the NCES dataset, we’ll first need to prove that it truly reflects the facts on the ground.

So how can we deal with the problems that really are there? We could exclude one or two population segments or add a geographic region until we get the numbers to the place we’d like them to be. But, at a certain point, that looks like we’re just editing it to fit our preconceptions.

Instead, I’m going to beg for help. I’d going to list all the large schools (with enrollments above 200) from the NCES dataset by county. I’d love it if you could quickly scan through the schools with which you’re familiar and let me know - in the comments or by email - about any important schools (and their approximate enrollment) that are missing.

Even one or two corrections can make a difference. By removing the duplicate Lakewood Cheder School entry alone I was able to solve a number of problems. But we’re not quite there yet.

Girls Schools

Ocean County

• BAIS FAIGA SCHOOL FOR GIRLS

• SHIRAS CHAIM

• BNOS BROCHA

• BNOS DEVORAH

• TEHILAS CHAYA SARA

• BAIS FAIGA GRATTER BUILDING

• BELZ INSTITUTION/BAIS MALKO, BRENCH

• CHEIN BAIS YAAKOV

• MORESHES BAIS YAAKOV

• BNOS ESTHER MALKA

• BNOS ORCHOS CHAIM

• NACHLAS BAIS YAAKOV

• TIFERES CHAYA ELEMENTARY SCHOOL

• BNOS PENINA

• BAIS KAILA TORAH PREPARATORY HIGH SCHOOL FOR G...

• OROS BAIS YAKOV

• ADERES BAIS YAAKOV

• BAIS YAAKOV HIGH SCHOOL OF LAKEWOOD

Brooklyn

• BAIS RUCHEL DSATMAR GIRLS SCHOOL

• CONGREGATION BNOS CHAYA

• BET YAAKOV ATERET TORAH ELEMENTARY SCHOOL

• NESIVOS BAIS YAAKOV

• YESHIVAT SHAARE TORAH GIRLS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL

• BET YAAKOV ATERET TORAH

• BAIS YAAKOV OF 18TH AVE

• BETH RIVKA HIGH SCHOOL

• BAIS YAAKOV D'RAV MEIR HIGH SCHOOL

• MESILAS BAIS YAAKOV

• BET YAKOV ATERET TORAH HIGH SCHOOL

• TOMER DEVORAH HIGH SCHOOL

Queens

• YESHIVAT OHR HAIIM

• BNOS MALKA ACADEMY

• SHEVACH HIGH SCHOOL

• BNOS BAIS YAAKOV / TICHON MEIR MOSHE

Boys Schools

Brooklyn

• YESHIVA DERECH HATORAH

• TALMUD TORAH OHEL YOCHANAN

• YESHIVANT MEKOT HAIM

• TALMUD TORAH DRABINU YOEL

• YESHIVA BETH HILLEL OF WILLIAMSBURG
  TALMUD TORAH TIFERES YECHIEL D'ALEKSANDER INC

• UNITED TALMUDIAL ACADEMY OF BORO PARK

• YESHIVAS TOMCHEI TMIMIM

• UNITED TALMUDICAL ACADEMY-TORAH V'YIRAH

• LUBAVITCHER YESHIVA

• TALMUD TORAH OF BOBOV 45

• YESHIVAT MEKOR HAIM

• TORAH VYIRAH OF BORO PARK

• UNITED TALMUDICAL ACADEMY-TORAH V'YIRAH

• YESHIVA & MESIFTA VIYOEL MOSHE

Ocean County

• YESHIVA MASORAS AVOS

• YESHIVA NACHLEI TORAH

• YESHIVA ORCHOS CHAIM

• YESHIVA TORAS EMES

• CHEDER BNAI TORAH

• TALMUD TORAH OF LAKEWOOD

• YESHIVAT YAGDIL TORAH

• NESIVOS HATORAH

• MACHZIKEI HADAS

• TALMUD TORAH DARCHEI AVOSEINU

• YESHIVA STOLIN KARLIN

• LAKEWOOD CHEDER SCHOOL BOYS

• TASHBAR OF LAKEWOOD

• TALMUD TORAH BAIS AVROHOM

• YESHIVA EVEN YISROEL

• YESHIVA SHAGAS ARYEH

• YESHIVA TORAS ARON

• YESHIVA OHR HATORAH

• YESHIVA YAAROS DEVASH

• NEW JERSEY CENTER FOR JUDAIC STDS

Queens

• YESHIVA TIFERETH MOSHE

• YESHIVA KETANA OF QUEENS

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In addition, here’s the set of all Ocean County boys secondary schools with enrollments below 100. I’ve been told that many Lakewood boys go to smaller mesivtos that might not show up in the NCES data. So here are the ones that are there:

• YESHIVA CHAYEI OLAM

• YESHIVA CHEMDAT HATORAH

• KNESSES BAIS LEVI

• MESIVTA OF EATONTOWN

• YESHIVA BAIS HACHINUCH

• CONG. MIKOR HATORAH

• MESIVTA NER MOSHE

• MESIVTA OF CENTRAL JERSEY

• TIFERES CHAIM

• YESHIVA CHESHKAS HATORAH

• YESHIVA BAIS AHARON

• CONGREGATION YESHIVA YESODEI

• MIKOR HATORAH