Is Analyzing Jewish Population Numbers Even Permitted?
Some More Thoughts About Jewish Demographics
In my recent post, "Adjusting Strategy for Changing Demographics", I explained why I felt that conventional estimates for the size of the world Jewish popular were, from a halachic perspective, way off. Instead of 15 million Jews, there are far more likely to be just three or four million - of which perhaps 30% are Orthodox.
In this post I'm going to take a bit of a look at what should be a closely related topic: are we permitted to make such population counts in the first place? For that matter, given halachic restrictions on counting Jews, are we allowed to vote in Israeli (or shul!) elections, participate in a census, or even use data tools to learn more about Jewish demographics?
First though, I'd like to note how Rabbi Dov Fischer kindly pointed me to his American Spectator article on this very topic (scroll down to part 12 "Back to the Absolutely Ignorant American Jew Who Knows Judaically from Nothing" for the relevant section).
Rabbi Fischer does a great job in that article describing how distinguishing between halachic and non-halachic population estimates is critical for understanding a lot of what we read about "Jewish attitudes". When, for instance, we're told that 25% of Jews support anti-Israel BDS movements or oppose Israel's right to exist, we should put that in perspective: how many of those 25% are halachicly Jewish? More practically, this clarity can play a significant role in shaping the messaging Orthodox organizations should be using to connect with specifically halachic Jews.
But let's come back to that more general question of counting Jews. Shemos 30:12 tells us:
"When you count the men of Israel for their numbers, each man should give a personal atonement ("כופר נפשו") to God when they are counted so there should be no harm among them as they are counted."
The "personal atonement" - a donation of a half shekel in this case - seems to have been added so that Jews should be counted through a proxy, rather than by direct count. Similarly, King Shaul used sheep ("ויפקדם בטלאים") for his count of potential soldiers (1 Shmuel 15:4), and the late Second Temple king Aggripas used (perhaps) stones as a proxy for his count of the Jewish population via Passover offerings (Pesachim 64b).
What are we worried about? Rashi (Shemos 30:12) wrote that "Evil eye ("עין הרע") dominates enumerations, and plague can (as a result) come."
What is ayin harah? Perhaps the simplest explanation is that it's a possible consequence for individuals who recklessly display their success and good fortune, causing less fortunate observers emotional pain. As an illustration, in one of his halachos of Pesach primers, Rabbi Avrohom Blumenkrantz was critical of families who parade small children down the aisle during a chuppah. The fear is that there are bound to be childless people present who might experience silent pain through a confrontation with what they themselves lack. The choson and kallah and the parents have to be there. They're part of the process. But grandkids and siblings?
It's not unreasonable to extend this idea to unnecessary national counts. After all, King David brought plague on his nation (2 Shmuel 24:15) by insisting on enumerating his military resources over the objections of his general, Yoav (2 Shmuel 24:3). But it seems that even necessary counts - like the three examples above - also require proxies.
I would note that Rabbi Chaim Dov Rabinowitz - in his Daas Sofrim commentary to Shmuel - observes how none of the victims of David's plague had themselves ordered the count. Why, then, did they suffer? Perhaps, Rabbi Rabinowitz suggests, the dangerous consequences of a census aren't automatic, but can kick in if some other, more subtle failing is also present.
Is the problem of counting Jews a halachic issue, or do we simply avoid it out of fear of harm? A quick glance at the gemara in Yoma 22b would seem to easily resolve the question:
“Rabbi Elazer said: anyone who counts Jews has transgressed a negative commandment.”
The only thing is that Rabbi Elazer’s source isn’t a verse from the Torah, but from the prophet Hoshea (Hoshea 2:1). Actual Torah mitzvos can not come from any source besides Chumash (see Shabbos 104a). Given that (to my knowledge) none of the counting methodologies for the 613 mitzvos (i.e., Rambam, Ramban, etc.) include this one, we’re forced to conclude Rabbi Elazer’s statement isn’t literal.
Nevertheless there is a robust discussion of the topic within more recent halachic literature, including כף החיים and ציץ אליעזר.
Rabbi Eliezer Waldenberg in particular included a detailed 28-page study of the issue in the seventh volume of his teshuvos. There, he concludes that:
There is both a halachic prohibition and risk of harm in counting Jews, whether in Israel or elsewhere.
There is a prohibition on both those counting and those being counted.
When a count is justified, it must work through some kind of proxy.
If one was unjustifiably counted, it’s a good idea to create an ex post facto proxy by donating to tzedaka.
Without claiming full mastery of this complex topic, I nevertheless feel it’s reasonable to permit many analytics projects. That would mean seeking potentially actionable insights from working with Jewish demographic data through the abstractions provided by analytics tools. Those data abstractions, which effectively act as proxies, move us at least a step or two away from a direct count.
Any thoughts to add? Leave a comment.